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The 4% Rule Isn't a Rule. Here's What It Is.

Bengen's study answered one specific question with specific assumptions. Treating it as gospel is how retirees go broke or die rich.

The original 1994 study tested whether 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawals would survive 30 years across every rolling historical period. It did. Barely.

The world has changed: bond yields, equity valuations, longevity, sequence-of-returns risk in the first decade of retirement. Modern updates put a safe rate closer to 3.3% — 3.7% for a 30-year horizon and stretching down for longer ones.

The point of the rule was never the number. It was that withdrawal rate, not asset allocation, drives whether retirees run out of money.